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Galveston Economic Indicators
by David Stanowski

Note: This web site is being rebuilt after a
long period of inactivity. Please be patient.


Sales Tax
Hotel Revenue
Residential Real Estate
Cruise Ship Data
Mixed Beverage Tax



Monthly Sales Tax:
 Latest Update: 06 July 2018


Sales tax collections are a very good proxy for overall economic activity, excluding investment. They are also very accurate, because they do not rely on estimates or formulas; they represent actual sales.

Note: Collections posted for a given month represent sales about a month prior to that date.

The first graph shows the raw monthly sales tax collections for the City of Galveston. This data appears to show a somewhat upward trend in Galveston sales tax collections since 2000, but it has seven high points at around $2 million/month; a level which seems to be acting as a cap to further growth.

The first two $2-million months are marked: August 2009 and August 2012. The last five are not marked, due to lack of space on the graph, but they occurred on September 2014, August 2015, August 2016, August 2017 and May 2018.

However, raw data fluctuates so wildly that it is difficult to draw any accurate or useful conclusions from it, so a data "smoothing" process is normally employed to see what it might reveal.

The next graph has been generated by calculating a backward looking 12-month rolling sum, of the previous 12 month's sales tax collections, to smooth the data. The upward trend obscured by the wide fluctuations in the raw data is much more obvious once the data is smoothed.

The smoothed data clearly shows sales tax collections topping out in late 2009, as the rebuilding process after Hurricane Ike began to wind down, and then bottoming in November 2010 when the local economy started to really recover from Ike. However, after the 2010 bottom this graph offers little useful information other than the fact that the trend has generally been up for the last 7 1/2 years. 

Galveston Sales Tax Monthly

To get a more "dynamic" and "internal" look at the uptrend in Galveston sales tax collections, the Year-Over-Year Rate of Change was calculated to discover how the current 12-month trailing sum of sales tax collections compared to the sum 12 months ago throughout the period in question.

Clearly, the positive rate-of-change in Galveston sales tax collections peaked in November 2006. The two years after that show the effect of the world-wide economic slowdown that preceded the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

The Island's economy actually enjoyed a surge in momentum in the middle of the financial crisis, due to the rebuilding effort after Hurricane Ike, but by November 2009, that surge in activity gave way to the the full force of the financial crisis and the economy collapsed into November 2010.

The FED's unprecedented credit creation, in response to the crisis, allowed the City to stage a dramatic recovery, but the rate of recovery peaked in January 2013 at a lower level of momentum than registered at the November 2006 peak. (Note the declining yellow trend line connecting November 2006 and January 2013.)

Although the amount of sales tax collected has continued to grow since January 2013, as shown by the previous graphs, this rate-of-change graph demonstrates that the growth rate has been contracting for the last 5 1/2 years!
(Note the second declining yellow trend line connecting January 2013 and May 2015.) In fact, the growth in sales tax collections slowed so much that it bounced off the ZERO point in May 2014, May 2016 and May 2017!

This pattern of contraction in the growth of sales tax collections could certainly resolve itself with an upward spurt, and higher rates of collections, but a pattern of slowing positive momentum is often a signal that the economy being studied is on the verge of going into decline, as happened between November 2006 and November 2010.

Galveston Sales Tax Monthly

Even more troubling is the fact that these numbers show the "nominal" amount of sales tax collected which corresponds to the nominal amount of local economic activity. In other words, this data has not been "adjusted" for inflation by using some "estimate" of the current inflation rate to create the "real" (inflation-adjusted) rate-of-change of sales tax collections. Since the June 2018 NOMINAL rate-of-change in sales tax collections was only 1.27%, adjusting for the current "estimated" rate of inflation of 2.8% would tend to indicate that the local economy is already contracting slightly on a "real" basis! 

Monthly Local Sales Tax
X January YoY
% Change
February YoY
 % Change
March YoY
% Change
2008 $1,364,061 ++14.4% $1,664,745 +17.8% $1,188,277 +5.5%
2009 $1,490,502 +9.3% $1,797,157 +8.0% $1,372,358 +15.5%
2010 $1,009,251 -32.3% $1,360,776 -24.3% $931,082 -32.2%
2011 $1,023,256 +1.4% $1,416,349 +4.1% $1,076,966 +15.7%
2012 $787,761 -23.0% $1,660, 325 +17.2% $1,152,247 +7.0%
2013
$1,140,070 +44.7% $1,503,560 -9.4% $1,248,434 +8.3%
X X X X X X X
X April YoY
% Change
May YoY
% Change
June YoY
% Change
2008 $1,235,003 +5.3% $1,595,810 -5.4% $1,304,170 +8.9%
2009 $1,358,940 +10.0% $1,720,914 +7.8% $1,424,579 +9.2%
2010 $997,516 -26.6% $1,482,394 -13.9% $1,039,080 -27.1%
2011 $976,108 -2.1% $1,632,281 +10.1% $1,187,485 +14.3%
2012
$1,042,993 +6.9% $1,597,011 -2.2% $1,306,725 +10.0%
2013 $1,183,430 +13.5% $1,702,992 +6.6% $1,341,758 +2.7
x x x x x x x
X July YoY
% Change
August YoY
% Change
September YoY
% Change
2008 $1,364,881 -0.3% $1,872,779 +2.7% $1,787,516 +12.3%
2009 $1,339,994 -1.8% $1,993,911 +6.5% $1,602,092 -10.4%
2010 $1,206,580 -10.0% $1,714,011 -14.0% $1,486,870 -7.2%
2011 $1,262,706 +4.7% $1,816,468 +6.0% $1,596,087 +7.3%
2012
$1,428,370 +13.1% $2,018,138 +11.1% $1,829,425 +14.6%
2013
$1,464,186 +2.5% $1,901,187 -5.8% X X

X X X X X X
X October YoY
% Change
November YoY
% Change
December YoY
% Change
2008 $1,001,001 -34.0% $1,212,319 -26.4% $1,374,518 +15.3%
2009 $1,413,435 +41.2% $1,587,960 +31.0% $1,070,841 -22.1%
2010 $1,337,874 -5.3% $1,537,453 -3.2% $1,088,606 +1.7%
2011 $1,410,557 +5.4% $1,535,589 -0.1% $1,113,600 +2.3%
2012 $1,742,267 +23.5% $1,666,143 +8.5% $1,259,799 +13.1%
 

Yearly Sales Tax Data:
Latest Update: 30 July 2018


Sales tax collections are a very good proxy for overall economic activity, excluding investment. They are also very accurate, because they do not rely on estimates or formulas; they represent actual sales.

2008 held even with 2007 sales due the beginning of the rebuilding effort in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike. 2009 got a bump from increased rebuilding, and 2010 reflects the local economic slump as rebuilding slowed. 2011 and 2012 showed strong growth.



The 31-year history of sales tax collections shows only two slightly negative year-over-year rates of change in City sales tax collections in 1988 and 2002, until the unprecedented 16% plunge in 2010. More recently, 2008 was flat, and then 2009 experienced healthy growth, before the plunge in 2010. Recent rates-of-change are declining and the last three years are under 3.0%.

Yearly City of Galveston Tax

Year Sales Tax YoY
% Change
1986 $3,594,799 X
1987 $3,652,806 +1.6%
1988 $3,609,246 -1.2%
1989 $5,396,020 +49.5%
1990 $6,270,618 +16.2%
1991 $6,281,869 +0.2%
1992 $6,427,775 +2.3%
1993 $6,461,990 +0.5%
1994 $7,387,631 +14.3%
1995 $7,804,651 +5.6%
1996 $9,364,170 +20.0%
1997 $9,744,335 +4.1%
1998 $10,396,081 +6.7%
1999 $11,336,220 +9.0%
2000 $11,704,283 +3.2%
2001 $12,546,407 +7.2%
2002 $12,357,793 -1.5%
2003 $12,948,954 +4.8%
2004 $13,257,799 +2.4%
2005 $14,097,790 +6.3%
2006 $16,369,646 +16.1%
2007 $16,926,890 +3.4%
2008 $16,965,085 +0.2%
2009 $18,172,687 +7.1%
2010 $15,191,499 -16.4%
2011 $16,047,455 +5.6%
2012 $17,491,206 +9.0%
2013 $17,931,699 +2.5%
2014 $19,171,870 +6.9%
2015 $19,580,044 +2.1%
2016 $20,088,670 +2.6%
2017 $20,275,462 +0.9%



Monthly Hotel Data:
Latest Update: 13 July 2018


Note: The Texas Comptroller used to publish hotel data each month on their web site. This data was available from January 2000 through April 2017. Their data included: total hotel revenue, total taxable hotel revenue and total number of hotel rooms. What the Comptroller counted as "hotels" included all short-term rental facilities that paid HOT regardless of whether they were classified as "hotels".

The Galveston Economic Report (GER) collected the data supplied on the Comptroller's web site from January 2000 to August 2014. In 2017, the Texas Legislature passed a bill prohibiting the posting of this data online. Recent attempts to acquire the "missing" data from the August 2014 to May 2018 period, from the Comptroller, through an Open Records Request, produced data that is "similar" to that was available online before April 2017. However, it does not include the number of hotel rooms.

Comparing the data now available from the Comptroller with that from a sample compiled by the Park Board shows some discrepancies which seem to be caused by the differences in the ways each source segregates hotel revenue that is not subject to HOT. At this time, it is not clear how these differences can be resolved. Since the vast majority of GER's data base is from the Comptroller, the Comptroller's data will continue be used in these reports unless and until the differences with the Park Board's data can be resolved.

The first graph plots the raw monthly hotel revenue data for the City of Galveston. This data shows a strong upward trend in hotel revenue
since 2010 which features a higher high each summer for seven years in a row!!

Raw data often fluctuates so wildly that it is difficult to draw any accurate or useful conclusions from it, so a data "smoothing" process is normally employed to see what it might reveal.

Galveston Hotel Revenue Monthly
Source: Texas Comptroller

The next graph was generated by calculating a backward looking 12-month rolling sum, of the previous 12 month's hotel revenue, to smooth the data. The upward trend shown in the raw data is even more obvious once the data is smoothed.

The smoothed data clearly shows
that hotel revenue was flat until mid-2004, when it began to accelerate higher and continued to rise through the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and Hurricane Ike, apparently due to the demand for temporary housing after the storm, but it finally topped in February 2009. It then moved lower for 13 months where it bottomed in March 2010 when the local economy started to recover from the financial crisis and Hurricane Ike. Since the March 2010 bottom, the trend has been strong for the last 8+ years. In fact, hotel revenue is now exceeding $200 million for the most recent backward looking 12-month periods!! 

Galveston Hotel Revenue Monthly Smoothed
Source: Texas Comptroller

To get a more "dynamic" and "internal" look at the uptrend in Galveston hotel revenue, the Year-Over-Year Rate of Change was calculated to discover how the current 12-month trailing sum of hotel revenue compared to the sum 12 months ago throughout the period in question.

The growth in hotel revenue was strong into September 2006 when the effects of the looming financial crisis began to push the growth rate backs towards the zero-growth line. The resurgence from July 2007 to February 2009 was likely due to the need for temporary housing after Hurricane Ike, but then gave wave to the contracting forces of the financial crisis as the demand for temporary housing abated, creating a severe contraction in hotel revenue growth into March 2010, when the negative trend began to ease up, which eventually gave way to positive growth into April 2011.

The April 2011 top started a decline in the growth rate of hotel revenues which ended six years later, near the zero-growth point, which allowed a new spurt of strong growth to begin in April 2017!

Galveston Hotel Revenue Monthly Smoothed ROC
Source: Texas Comptroller

Keep in mind that these numbers show the "nominal" amount of hotel revenue. In other words, this data has not been "adjusted" for inflation by using some "estimate" of the current inflation rate to create the "real" (inflation-adjusted) growth rate of hotel revenue. However, since the May 2018 NOMINAL rate-of-change in hotel revenue was 16.80%, adjusting for the current "estimated" rate of inflation of 2.8%  shows that hotel revenue is also very strong on a "real" basis! 

Revenue per Room:
The Comptroller reported July 2014 total hotel revenue of $24,239,116.59 and 5,353 total hotel rooms for a revenue per room of $4,528.14
The Comptroller also reported July 2017 total hotel revenue of $30,098,016.00, but it had no data on the number of hotel rooms in Galveston. However, the Park Board is estimating the total number of rooms is currently near 7,500, which would produce a revenue per room of $4,013.07 for July 2017.

With the changes in the data collection and reporting methods, it's difficult to say whether these "revenue per room" numbers are accurate, but that's the best that can be done, at this point.





Monthly Hotel Room Data:
Latest Update: June 2013

Galveston Hotel Rooms Monthly
Source: Texas Comptroller

The number of hotel rooms peaked at 5,394, in September 2008, and then hit a low point of 4,412 in July 2009. More recently, the number of rooms declined steadily from 5,159 in February 2011 to 4,753 in February 2012; but then rebounded to 5,328 in June 2013.

Galveston Hotel Revenue Per Room Monthly
Source: Texas Comptroller

2012 was the first time in 12 years that July was NOT the peak month in hotel revenue per room! July could not better the all-time high made in June. 


Until now, July has been the peak month in hotel revenue per room every year for the period in question, and January the low point.
 

Like total hotel revenue, revenue per room pushed to a new high in July 2008, and soared to its all-time high in June 2012!

The chart shows the decrease in the revenue per room from $4,366 in June 2012 to $3,401 in June 2013 (see data points circled in yellow)!

June 2013 hotel revenue per room of $3,401 is 22.1% below the revenue per room of $4,366 in June 2012; the best June for revenue per room on record!

City of Galveston Hotel Revenue
X January YoY
% Change
February YoY
 % Change
March YoY
% Change
2008 $4,901,186 +12.0% $6,906,651 +16.2% $11,260,815 +9.5%
2009 $9,892,559 +101.8% $9,588,647 +38.8% $9,715,819 -13.7%
2010 $3,348,998 -66.1% $5,014,260 -47.7% $8,649,651 -10.9%
2011 $5,232,129 +56.2% $5,224,495 +4.2% $10,036,254 +16.0%
2012 $4,711,983 -9.9% $6,195,405 +18.6% $11,749,038 +17.1%
2013 $5,131,490 +8.9% $7,047,518 +13.8% $12,398,701 +5.3%
x x x x x x x
X April YoY
% Change
May YoY
% Change
June YoY
% Change
2008 $8,348,850 +13.3% $16,097,854 +56.5% $17,096,913 +4.4%
2009 $6,700,740 -19.7% $7,839,089 -51.3% $10,957,569 -35.9%
2010 $7,032,202 +4.9% $8,865,572 +13.0% $13,911,786 +26.9%
2011 $8,891,364 +26.4% $9,839,928 +11.0% $15,903,690 +14.3%
2012 $9,257,500 +4.1% $11,485,524 +16.7% $21,656,519 +36.2%
2013 $9,918,978 +7.2% $12,075,188 +5.1% $18,120,998 -16.3%
x x x x x x x
X July YoY
% Change
August YoY
% Change
September YoY
% Change
2008 $20,350,206 +16.1% $14,118,536 +2.6% $6,314,685 -41.3%
2009 $14,421,624 -29.1% $11,522,993 -18.3% $5,621,280 -10.9%
2010 $17,648,951 +22.3% $11,357,554 -1.4% $7,003,974 +24.6%
2011 $21,061,282 +19.3% $13,797,176 +21.5% $7, 944,358 +13.4%
2012 $20,874,504 -0.9% $16,420,484 +19.0% $8,720,411 +9.8%
x x x x x x x
X October YoY
% Change
November YoY
% Change
December YoY
% Change
2008 $12,234,593 +68.7% $8,050,689 +9.1% $10,441,196 +82.9%
2009 $5,552,354 -54.6% $4,956,523 -38.4% $3,779,287 -60.5%
2010 $6,345,493 +14.2% $5,332,141 +7.6% $4,362,844 +15.8%
2011 $6,969,213 +9.8% $6,379,248 +19.6% $4,676,826 +7.2%
2012 $7,255,049 +4.1% $7,294,702 +14.4% $5,494,381 +17.5%


Yearly Hotel Data:
Latest Update: 30 July 2018


Galveston Hotel Revenue Yearly
Source: Texas Comptroller

Revenues began rapid growth in 2005, but almost dropped back to 2005 levels in 2009 and 2010. 2008 hotel revenue was artificially boosted by post-Ike demand for hotel rooms in the 4th quarter. 

Galveston Hotel Revenue YoY RoC
Source: Texas Comptroller





Yearly Hotel Rooms Data:
Latest Update: 2012

The average number of rooms showed sustained growth during this period until 2009, but recovered in 2010 and 2011 to hold near 5,000. The average number of rooms declined in 2012, but did finish the year above 5,000.


Revenues per room began rapid growth in 2005, but declined dramatically in 2009 and 2010; they rebounded nicely in 2011 and 2012!

Without the skewing due to hurricane Ike in 2008, 2012 would have been the all-time high in hotel revenue per room!

City of Galveston Hotel Revenue
Year Revenue YoY
% Change
2000 $74,538,068 X
2001 $73,536,204 -1.3%
2002 $73,658,796 +0.2%
2003 $75,327,921 +2.3%
2004 $79,456,214 +5.5%
2005 $95,054,733 +19.6%
2006 $106,031,846 +11.6%
2007 $117,017,604 +10.4%
2008 $136,122,179 +16.3%
2009 $99,950,845 -26.6%
2010 $98,873,429 -1.1%
2011 $115,955,962 +17.3%
2012 $131,136,288 +13.1%
2013$138,319,341+5.5%
2014$152,202,921+10.0%
2015$170,005,319+11.7%
2016$176,196,374+3.6%
2017$200,629,831+13.9%



Monthly Residential Real Estate Data:
Latest Update: 24 August 2013




The chart shows the increase in total dollar sales from $17,949,647 in July 2012 to $27,186,364 in July 2013 (see data points circled in yellow)!

July 2013 total dollar sales of $27,186,364 are still 14.2% below the July 2005 total dollar sales of $31,700,000; the best July on record.

Galveston Residential Real Estate Total Dollar Sales Year Over Year Rate of Change

July 2013 total dollar sales were 51.5% higher than July 2012!

Galveston Residential Real Estate Total Sales

The number of properties sold peaked at 160 in April 2005, and the number of months of inventory made its low of 6.3 in the same month. 

The chart shows the increase in total sales from 96 in July 2012 to 118 in July 2013 (an increase of 22.9%) (see data points circled yellow)! The number of months of inventory in July 2013 was 10.0.

The number of properties listed for sale has declined from a peak of 1,964 in June 2007 to 830 in July 2013.

July 2013 total sales of 118 are still 15.7% below the July 2005 total sales of 140; the best July on record.

U.S. Residential Real Estate Total Sales

U.S. Residential Real Estate Total Sales

The volume of residential real estate sales nationwide clearly show how weak the current rebound really is regardless of rising prices! Sales are barely exceeding the previous low points in 1974-75, 1980-82, and 1992.

The average price of residential real estate held up much longer than the national averages, peaking in March 2008 as opposed to 2005-2006 in most locations. After the plunge in 2009, to the April low, where prices were 56% below their peak levels, they have rebounded to $261,200, in June 2013.

Obviously, some portion of the 2009 plunge was distressed selling, due to Hurricane Ike, but with 7,671 "distressed" vacant housing units in the City, the difficulty of finding people who want to live in Galveston, and the weak national and local economies may lead to further price declines in the coming years.

Vacant Housing Crisis
Galveston Glut: 3,237 Vacant Rentals


The chart shows the increase in the average home price from $187,000 in July 2012 to $230,400 in July 2013 (see data points circled in yellow)!

The July 2013 average home price of $230,400 is still 10.9% below the July 2008 average home price of $258,500; the highest average home price for the month of July in history.


July 2013's Average Home Price was 23.2% higher than in July 2012!


Looking at the average selling price versus its 120-month moving average (a simple measure of the long-term value) finds prices consistently and substantially above their 120-month MA until the post-Ike collapse hit in December 2008; followed by a fairly strong rebound after five negative months. This study would argue that there need to be more price declines in the future to allow prices to find levels that are more in line with measures of long-term value.

Conclusion:

June's average home price of $261,200 was only 3.4% below Galveston's all-time high price of $270,400 set in March 2008!

Does the surge in prices represent a healthy rally that seems sustainable? What are the perverse "side effects" of rising home prices?

The Case-Schiller 20-City Index, a measure of national home prices, is only up 12.2% over the last year (May 2012 to May 2013), AND it is still 24.4% below its all-time high set in July 2006.

Case-Schiller 20-City Monthly Home Prices

Compare this to Galveston over the same period:

Galveston Monthly Home Prices

Why are Galveston home prices so much stronger than the national numbers?


Finally, unlike most other investments, real estate has very high carrying costs. For example, holding a stock that goes up 24% in price has no cost until it is sold and capital gains taxes are due. Holding real estate that goes up 24% in price increases the property taxes and insurance costs for the owner. If the real estate isn't sold to capture the gain and end the burden of property taxes and insurance fees; where is the current benefit?

The current local price surge means that local real estate owners can look forward to higher property taxes and insurance costs. This will lower the amount of money that they have to spend in the local economy, so where is the benefit?

City of Galveston Residential Real Estate Average Price
X January YoY
% Change
February YoY
 % Change
March YoY
% Change
2008 $196,500 -15.6% $223,400 -7.9% $270,400 +7.7%
2009 $121,500 -38.2% $123,800 -44.6% $133,100 -50.8%
2010 $194,400 +60.0% $213,800 +72.7% $231,900 +74.2%
2011 $206,600 +6.3% $245,100 +14.6% $235,700 +1.6%
2012 $149,300 -27.7% $232,200 -5.3% $175,900 -25.4%
2013 $226,400 +51.6% $234,200 +0.9% $234,200 +33.1%
x x x x x x x
X April YoY
% Change
May YoY
% Change
June YoY
% Change
2008 $231,400 +9.0% $241,700 +11.0% $241,100 +11.3%
2009 $120,200 -48.1% $178,900 -26.0% $203,900 -15.4%
2010 $221,900 +84.6% $210,400 +17.6% $226,800 +11.2%
2011 $236,900 +6.8% $216,700 +3.0% $187,300 -17.4%
2012 $196,000 -17.3% $211,500 -2.4% $210,300 +12.3%
2013 $250,600 +27.9% $250,000 +18.2% $261,200 +24.2%
x x x x x x
X July YoY
% Change
August YoY
% Change
September YoY
% Change
2008 $258,500 +18.1% $256,300 +21.7% $200,200 -10.7%
2009 $183,400 -29.1% $182,000 -29.0% $175,800 -12.2%
2010 $232,000 +26.5% $239,000 +31.3% $161,000 -8.4%
2011 $205,200 -11.6% $195,700 -18.1% $225,700 +40.2%
2012
$187,000 -8.9% $212,200 +8.4% $217,800 -3.5%
2013 $230,400 +23.2% d d d d
d d d d d d d
X October YoY
% Change
November YoY
% Change
December YoY
% Change
2008 $207,200 -16.0% $213,700 +2.7% $149,300 -29.1%
2009 $196,700 -5.1% $222,300 +4.0% $168,900 +13.1%
2010 $227,000 +15.4% $176,000 -20.8% $230,600 +36.5%
2011 $214,100 -5.7% $191,000 +8.5% $206,300 -10.5%
2012 $233,000 +8.8% $233,800 +22.4% $238,700 +15.7%


Yearly Residential Real Estate Data:
Latest Update: 06 June 2013



Yearly total dollar sales also tend to show that the local market was topping in the 2005-2006 period even though prices held up beyond that time. Total dollar sales peaked in 2005 at $260,280,000, but 2006 and 2007 also exceeded $250,000,000. 2008 and 2009 show the effects of the weak national and local economies, as well as Hurricane Ike. 2010, 2011 and 2012 rebounded from the 2009 low, so that 2012 total dollar sales slightly exceeded 2004 levels.

On a yearly basis, the number of properties sold peaked at 1,294 in 2005, but 2012 did improve to 977 from 755 in 2009.

The yearly data also show that the average price of residential real estate has held up much longer than the national averages, peaking in 2008 as opposed to 2005-2006 in most locations. Prices plunged in 2009, in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike, but have rebounded in 2010, 2011 and 2012; although prices in 2011 and 2012 were lower than 2010.

Note: The City of Galveston has the most unfordable residential real estate in the County which will continue to act as a major obstacle to clearing the local housing inventory, including the "shadow inventory" made up of several thousand vacant housing units.
Read more: Click Here

Year Sales Total Dollar Sales Average Price
1979 398 $19,882,023 $50,000
1980 439 $24,247,135 $55,200
1981 444 $24,553,645 $55,300
1982 411 $25,600,504 $62,300
1983 390 $24,979,570 $64,100
1984 455 $31,795,438 $69,900
1985 396 $25,764,478 $65,100
1986 295 $21,808,318 $73,900
1987 246 $17,268,950 $70,200
1988 271 $17,638,430 $65,100
1989 339 $22,072,857 $65,100
1990 319 $22,444,618 $70,400
1991 372 $30,151,836 $81,100
1992 412 $31,319,527 $76,000
1993 529 $45,855,256 $86,700
1994 657 $54,352,029 $82,700
1995 652 $58,535,252 $89,800
1996 752 $71,215,759 $94,700
1997 650 $64,494,000 $99,200
1998 804 $91,293,765 $113,500
1999 842 $97,533,627 $115,800
2000 864 $112,475,000 $130,200
2001 745 $105,494,680 $141,600
2002 899 $129,698,402 $144,300
2003 905 $139,778,592 $154,500
2004 1130 $196,260,000 $173,700
2005 1294 $260,280,000 $201,100
2006 1155 $254,690,000 $220,550
2007 1157 $258,680,000 $223,600
2008 898 $211,745,000 $235,800
2009 755 $128,201,400 $169,800
2010 870 $188,476,941 $216,600
2011 909 $193,685,770 $213,100
2012 977 $205,319,586 $210,200


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Monthly Cruise Ship Data: Latest Update: 13 August 2012

Galveston Cruise Ship Passengers Monthly
Source: Port of Galveston

The number of cruise ship passengers peaked in December 2005 and December 2006 at nearly 70,000. They declined from there, and then collapsed in September and October 2008, due to Hurricane Ike, but have rebounded to 59,704 in January 2012.  


The chart shows the increase in cruise ship passengers from 33,198 in June 2011 to 38,941 in June 2012 (see data points circled in yellow)!

Galveston Cruise Ship Vehicles Parked Monthly
Source: Port of Galveston

The number of cruise ship vehicles parked peaked in March 2007 at 8,983. They declined from there, and then collapsed in September and October 2008, due to Hurricane Ike, but have rebounded to 7,129 in March 2012.  

Note: the June data on vehicles parked was corrupted, so the most recent data is for May.

The chart shows the increase in cruise ship 
vehicles parked from 4,500 in May 2011 to 5,942 in May 2012 (see data points circled in yellow)!

Galveston Cruise Ship Calls Monthly
Source: Port of Galveston

The number of cruise ship calls peaked in January and February 2006 at 29. They declined from there, and then collapsed in September and October 2008, due to Hurricane Ike, but have rebounded to 17 in January 2012.  


The chart shows the decline in cruise ship passengers from 11 in June 2011 to 10 in June 2012 (see data points circled in yellow)!


Monthly Cruise Ship Passengers
X January YoY
% Change
February YoY
 % Change
March YoY
% Change
2008 41,294 +-25.1% 38,783 -26.1% 51,247 -23.9%
2009 38,446 -6.9% 38,282 -1.3% 49,825 -2.8%
2010 46,081 +19.9% 38,718 +1.2% 44,834 -10.0%
2011 48,597 +5.5% 38,469 -0.7% 43,049 -4.0%
2012 59,704 +22.9% 48,364 +25.7% 55,435 +28.8%
X X X X X X X
X April YoY
% Change
May YoY
% Change
June YoY
% Change
2008 38,462 -37.8% 29,500 -17.7% 32,977 -19.4%
2009 36,646 -4.7% 28,137 -4.6% 27,222 -17.5%
2010 36,151 -1.4% 33,977 +20.8% 30,004 +10.2%
2011 44,343 +22.7% 35,171 +3.5% 33,198 +10.7%
2012
50,166 +13.1% 41,113 +16.9% 38,941 +17.3%

X X X X X X
X July YoY
% Change
August YoY
% Change
September YoY
% Change
2008 32,317 -27.8% 32,409 -18.3% 9,389 -69.5%
2009 32,709 +1.2% 34,776 +7.3% 19,393 +106.6%
2010 32,481 -0.7% 35,170 +1.1% 26,438 +36.3%
2011 34,277 +5.5% 32,210 -8.4% 15,610 -41.0%
2012
0 +13.1% $2,018,138 +11.1% X X

X X X X X X
X October YoY
% Change
November YoY
% Change
December YoY
% Change
2008 0 -100.0% 32,382 +22.3% 37,891 -6.3%
2009 21,422 +50.0% 30,402 -6.1% 40,518 +6.9%
2010 32,121 +49.9% 33,933 +11.6% 44,592 +10.1%
2011 35,041 +9.1% 45,136 +33.0% 54,347 +21.9%


Yearly Cruise Ship Data: Latest Update: 13 August 2012

Galveston Cruise Ship Passengers Yearly
Source: Port of Galveston

The number of cruise ship passengers peaked in 2006 at 616,939. They declined from there, and then collapsed in 2008, due to Hurricane Ike, but have rebounded to 459,448 in 2011. 


Galveston Cruise Ship Vehicles Parked Yearly
Source: Port of Galveston

The number of cruise ship vehicles parked peaked in 2006 at 78,905. They declined from there, and then collapsed in 2008, due to Hurricane Ike, but have rebounded to 59,466 in 2011.

Galveston Cruise Ship Calls Yearly
Source: Port of Galveston

The number of cruise ship calls peaked in 2006 at 253. They declined from there, and then collapsed in 2008, due to Hurricane Ike, but have rebounded to 152 in January 2011.


Yearly Cruise Ship Passengers

Year Cruise Ship
Passengers
YoY
% Change
2000 33,937 +3.2%
2001 148,701 +338.2%
2002 266,830 +79.4%
2003 373,345 +39.9%
2004 434,855 +16.5%
2005 532,241 +22.4%
2006 616,939 +15.9%
2007 523,303 -15.2%
2008 376,815 -28.0%
2009 394,640 +4.7%
2010 434,524 +10.1%
2011 459,448 +5.7%


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Quarterly Mixed Beverage Gross Receipts Tax:
Latest Update: 09 July 2018


Note: Prior to 01 January 2014, the State of Texas levied a 14% mixed-beverage gross receipts tax on all mixed-beverages sold, so all data prior to that date will reflect that tax rate. After 01 January 2014, the mixed-beverage gross receipts tax was lowered to 6.7%, but an 8.25% mixed-beverage sales tax was added to the gross receipts tax levied on each mixed-beverage sold, bringing the total tax to 14.95%.

All the data after 01 January 2014, will include both taxes to more accurately align with the data before that date.  More info

The first graph shows the raw quarterly mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections for the City of Galveston. This data shows an upward trend in collections since 2000, that accelerated higher beginning in 1Q 2013, but then there were four "high water marks" near the $250,000/quarter level; a level which seems to be acting as a cap to further growth.

The first two $250,000 quarters are marked 3Q 2014 and 3Q 2015. The next one, 3Q 2016 is not marked, due to lack of space on the graph, and the last high is marked 2Q 2017.

Raw data often fluctuates so wildly that it is difficult to draw any accurate or useful conclusions from it, so a data "smoothing" process is normally employed to see what it might reveal.

The next graph has been generated by calculating a backward looking 4-quarter rolling sum, of the previous 4 quarter's mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections, to smooth the data. The upward trend shown in the raw data is even more obvious once the data is smoothed.

The smoothed data clearly shows 
mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections topping out in 2Q 2008, and then bottoming in 1Q 2009 when the local economy started to recover from Ike, followed by  another up-down sequence in 2Q 2011 and 2Q 2012. Since the 2Q 2012 bottom, the trend has been up for the last 5+ years, but after a period a very strong growth between 2012 and 2014, the backward looking 4-quarter growth has leveled off between $800,000 and $900,000. 

Galveston Mixed-Beverage Sales Tax Quarterly 4Q Sum

To get a more "dynamic" and "internal" look at the uptrend in Galveston mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections, the Year-Over-Year Rate of Change was calculated to discover how the current 4-quarter trailing sum of mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections compared to the sum 4 quarters ago throughout the period in question.

The FED's unprecedented credit creation, in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, allowed 
mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections to stage a recovery beginning in 2Q 2009. However, the recovery stalled two years later (2Q 2011), and positive growth reversed into a fairly deep decline that bottomed in 2Q 2012. From there, the recovery surged for the next two years (2Q 2012 to 2Q 2014).

The 2Q 2014 top started a dramatic reversal that has lasted for nearly four years that saw 4Q 2017 ROC drop to a tepid 1.30%!

Although the amount of mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collected has continued to grow since 2Q 2014, as shown by the previous graphs, this rate-of-change graph demonstrates that the growth rate has been contracting for the last 3 1/2+ years! 

This pattern of contraction in the growth of 
mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections could certainly resolve itself with an upward spurt, and higher rates of collections, but a pattern of slowing positive momentum is often a signal that the economic indicator being studied is on the verge of going into decline, as happened between 2Q 2008 and 2Q 2009.

Galveston Mixed Beverage Tax YoY RoC

Even more troubling is the fact that these numbers show the "nominal" amount of mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collected which corresponds to the nominal amount of local mixed-beverage sales. In other words, this data has not been "adjusted" for inflation by using some "estimate" of the current inflation rate to create the "real" (inflation-adjusted) rate of mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections. Since the 1Q 2018 NOMINAL rate-of-change in mixed-beverage gross receipts tax collections was only 2.44%, adjusting for the current "estimated" rate of inflation of 2.8% would  tend to indicate that local mixed-beverage sales are already contracting slightly on a "real" basis!  
Quarterly Mixed Beverage Tax
X January
1Q
YoY
% Change
April
2Q
YoY
 % Change
July
3Q
YoY
% Change
October
4Q
YoY
% Change
2007 $99,170 +11.4% $99,787 -1.9% $116,711 +3.4% $141,532 +9.0%
2008 $114,075 +15.0% $105,870 +6.0% $128,095 +9.8% $134,415 -5.0%
2009 $67,054 -41.2% $80,066 -24.4% $130,793 +2.1% $134,198 -0.2%
2010 $95,275 +42.1% $90,115 +12.6% $118,609 -9.3% $148,994 +11.0%
2011 $106,576 +11.9% $98,359 +9.2% $148,988 +25.6% $132,435 -11.1%
2012 $97,550 -8.5% $89,852 -8.7% $128,948 -13.5% $153,552 +16.0%
2013 $110,049 +12.8% $102,364 +13.9%
 

Yearly Mixed Beverage Tax Data:
Latest Update: 16 June 2013


Mixed Beverage tax collections are a good proxy for overall bar and club sales.

2012 mixed beverage tax collections did not exceed the all-time high set in 2011.



After 13 straight years of positive gains, 2009 plunged -14.6% in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike, but 2010 and 2011 showed growth, even as 2012 was down 3.4%!

Yearly Mixed Beverage Tax

Year Mixed Beverage Tax YoY
% Change
1991 $218,726 d
1992 $204,379 -6.6%
1993 $196,941 -3.6%
1994 $216,740 +10.0%
1995 $194,851 -10.1%
1996 $200,982 +3.2%
1997 $218,989 +9.0%
1998 $233,779 +6.8%
1999 $258,050 +10.4%
2000 $284,784 +10.4%
2001 $299,411 +5.1%
2002 $311,835 +4.2%
2003 $323,595 +3.8%
2004 $362,078 +11.9%
2005 $380,831 +5.2%
2006 $433,689 +13.9%
2007 $457,291 +5.4%
2008 $482,455 +5.5%
2009 $412,111 -14.6%
2010 $452,993 +9.9%
2011 $486,358 +7.4%
2012 $469,902 -3.4%








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